Recent highs have been lower than mid-summer, but the broader autumn signal still favours above-average temperatures.

Across the Hibiscus Coast, autumn is expected to lean warmer than average.

That warmth is linked in part to the sea around New Zealand, which is sitting above normal and is forecast to stay that way through early 2026.

Rainfall is most likely to sit around normal to above normal.

The outlook also flags a higher chance of a few heavy rain events, especially early in the season, when subtropical or tropical-linked systems can move down over the North Island.

This is not a long-range forecast.

It is a seasonal probability call, and confidence drops the further into autumn you go.

La Nina is fading.

The outlook still allows for humid subtropical flows early in autumn.

It shifts closer to average patterns later in the season.

In everyday terms, that points to a milder-than-average start to autumn, with rain not in short supply and the chance of a heavier burst or two early on.

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