A fresh survey of New Zealand’s largest gas users has painted a grim picture for the months ahead, with warnings of soaring costs, shrinking supply and potential shutdowns.

The Industrial and Consumers Gas Survey, released on Tuesday, shows some businesses can’t secure contracts beyond September, and those who can are facing price hikes of 20–40% or more.

EMA Head of Advocacy Alan McDonald says the situation is already leading to reduced production and job losses.

The problem is particularly severe for manufacturers reliant on gas-powered equipment, such as greenhouse vegetable growers, milk powder producers and baby formula manufacturers.

Transitioning to other energy sources would require huge investment, with costs and geography making alternatives like electricity or geothermal out of reach for many.

McDonald says importing more coal or diesel is an ironic consequence of pushing too quickly toward renewables without keeping gas as a transition fuel.

“Elsewhere in the world, gas is recognised as the viable bridge while renewables scale up,” he says.

The forum also highlighted that many businesses see the government’s $200m exploration co-investment fund as too little, too late, given years of policy uncertainty.

Without a reliable supply, McDonald warns of further factory closures and “de-industrialisation” of the economy.

For NZ industries, particularly food producers and manufacturers, the findings could signal higher operating costs, tighter margins and potential job impacts in the near future.

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