New Zealand home values rose 0.2% in October, a second lift that matters for Hibiscus Coast buyers watching the market.

Cotality NZ’s Home Value Index shows the national median at $811,662 after a 0.1% rise in September, following five monthly falls.

Chief property economist Kelvin Davidson said the back-to-back increases “may signal the early stages of a market recovery,” but urged restraint.

“Sentiment remains tilted to the cautious end of the spectrum, and of course, the economy and labour market are still subdued.”

He linked the small gains to lower mortgage rates and flagged looser loan-to-value rules from Monday, December 1, after the Tuesday, October 14 announcement.

Banks often move early, so effects could appear in October lending data due late November.

In Auckland, October was mixed: Franklin rose 0.3% and North Shore edged up, while Rodney, Manukau, and Papakura dipped 0.1%, with larger drops in Auckland City and Waitākere.

Over 12 months, Auckland values fell 2.0%, with key areas still 20–25% below peak.

Davidson said attention now turns to the Reserve Bank’s Wednesday, November 26 OCR call, likely a 0.25% cut that could end this cycle.

He sees 2026 bringing more sales and modest price growth, around 5% or less, with values still about 17% under early-2022 peaks—conditions some Coast buyers may view as opportunity.

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