New OECD modelling shows New Zealand’s economy won’t double in size until 2055 unless big changes are made to how organisations run.

Real GDP, now at US$216 billion, is expected to grow just 48% by 2040, with most of that coming from population growth rather than productivity.

Productivity per hour worked is now around 40% lower than in countries like Denmark and Sweden.

Experts warn that this gap means weaker wages, living standards and competitiveness.

Craig Steel, a workplace performance expert from Vantaset, says many Kiwi firms are putting too much faith in AI.

“There’s a misguided belief that AI will close the gap for any organisation that applies it. But when technology is layered on top of disconnected leadership and compliance systems, the gains rarely occur.”

Craig Steel, from Vantaset. Photo: Supplied

Steel says the real barrier isn’t technology itself, but leadership, culture and capability.

He warns of a “two-speed economy” where digital-first firms accelerate while traditional sectors struggle.

Former All Blacks manager Darren Shand adds that New Zealand should borrow lessons from sport.

“The All Blacks didn’t win because of tools. They won because of belief, clarity and discipline. That same clarity is missing from many organisations right now.”

For Coasties, the message hits home.

If the national economy stays stuck in low-gear productivity, it means slower wage growth, tougher business conditions, and fewer chances for local families to get ahead.

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