Coasties, like many retailers across New Zealand, are heading into the final quarter with renewed hope, despite tough trading conditions earlier this year.

According to Retail NZ’s latest Retail Radar survey, 65% of local businesses now feel confident about their future, up from 58% last quarter.

With Labour Weekend, Black Friday, and Christmas sales on the horizon, 57% of retailers expect to meet or exceed their sales targets for the critical October–December period.

This optimism marks a notable shift from Q3, where only 32% felt they would hit their goals.

Retail NZ Chief Executive Carolyn Young pointed out the importance of these final months: “The fourth quarter is crucial for retailers. Strong sales over this period help many businesses build a financial cushion for the quieter months ahead.”

Despite the positive outlook, challenges remain.

Around 43% of businesses still worry they won’t reach their sales goals, and inflation continues to be a concern, affecting 75% of survey respondents.

However, the survey shows that concerns about inflation have eased slightly, down from 80% in the previous quarter.

Other challenges, such as rising freight costs and insurance premiums, persist, but the overall mood appears to be one of cautious optimism.

While Q3 saw 70% of retailers failing to meet targets, the signs of economic improvement—such as drops in the OCR and inflation—are fostering hope for a brighter Q4.