It’s shaping up to be a milder, wetter winter across the Hibiscus Coast and upper North Island, according to NIWA’s seasonal outlook for June to August 2025.

The region is expected to see above normal rainfall and warmer-than-usual temperatures, with a 65% chance of higher-than-average temperatures for Northland, Auckland, Waikato, and Bay of Plenty.

Rainfall totals are most likely to be above normal (45% chance), and NIWA says we should expect occasional heavy rain events.

Residual signs of La Niña are still lingering in the Pacific, and while international models predict a 70% chance of ENSO-neutral conditions over winter, La Niña-like patterns may still crop up occasionally.

That means low pressure systems forming to our north could continue to bring moisture-rich air down over the Coast, increasing the risk of downpours.

We’re also seeing higher than average sea surface temperatures around much of New Zealand, including marine heatwave conditions offshore.

That warmth in the ocean adds extra fuel to rain-making systems and helps explain the higher-than-usual winter temperature forecast.

For Coasties, this means fewer frosty mornings but a greater risk of sudden, heavy rainfall.

It’s worth keeping gutters clear, checking stormwater drains, and staying alert to forecasts—especially during stormy weeks.

Soil moisture and river flows across the North Island are expected to remain near normal, but localised flooding can still happen when intense bursts of rain hit already damp ground.

While winter cold snaps and frosts aren’t off the table, they’ll be less frequent than usual.

That might come as a relief to early risers and school-run parents—though gardeners and growers may need to adjust their plans for a warmer, wetter season ahead.

As always, it’s a good idea to keep an eye on updates and alerts throughout winter.

Our coastal weather can turn quickly, and with a few big lows predicted, staying informed can make all the difference.

Watch NIWA’s Chris Brandolino as he breaks down what Kiwis can expect over the next three months.

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