That damp start to the day can feel like summer has packed up early.

What’s really happening is a classic La Niña-style setup for New Zealand, where northeasterly winds show up more often and drag warm, moisture-heavy air down from the tropics onto the North Island.

Sea surface temperatures around New Zealand are sitting about 1°C to 2°C above average, which adds extra moisture into the atmosphere through evaporation, then any passing system has more to work with.

That’s part of why we have seen tropical lows and remnants of tropical cyclones drifting south this January, with some of them slow-moving enough to sit over the upper North Island once the “door” opens between high pressure and the incoming lows.

NIWA’s outlook through late February points to normal to above normal rainfall for much of the North Island, and normal to below normal rainfall across much of the South Island, so it’s not an early end to the season, it’s summer arriving in bursts.

MetService is still signalling mid to upper 20s in early February with a mix of fine and showery days.

Today is a good example on the Hibiscus Coast, peak 23°C under sunny skies, a high UV index of 8, and only a 15% chance of rain.

Get the Hibiscus Coast headlines first.

Corrections, tips, or photos, [email protected]